Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Major Climate Change Risks and Opportunities in the Forest Products Industry

Though the forest products industry as a whole may stand to gain, climate change will impact companies and investments differently based on the location of the forests, mills, and markets, the vertical integration of assets, and the sustainability of forest operations. This figure illustrates these risks and opportunities in a qualitative way with respect to their potential financial impact and the level of certainty.

Population with Access to an Improved Water Source in 2004

In addition to being important for human health, access to an improved water source is indicative of the state of a country's overall physical infrastructure. Access to improved water provides a buffer against climate change and variability, especially in countries which are prone to drought. Populations with access to improved water are also less at risk of contracting water borne diseases. In many countries, women are responsible for collecting water.

Digital Access Index 2002

Digital access is an important indicator for vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change because of the increasingly large role of telecommunications in all aspects of life. Digital access allows individuals and communities to access information on changing weather patterns, current events, disasters and early warning systems, as well as general information on agriculture and markets to facilitate adaptation. Digital access is also important during all phases of disaster response.

Projected Changes in Agriculture in 2080 Due to Climate Change

Of the 2.6 billion people who live on less than $2 per day, almost 2 billion live in rural areas, in countries whose economies and people are most dependent on natural resources. Efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goal of cutting poverty in half in such areas are being stymied by the already-evident impacts of climate change. Shown in this figure is the forecasted change in agricultural output potential from the turn of the century to 2080.

Population Living on Less than $1 Per Day, 1981 to 2004

Worldwide, the number of people living on less than $1 per day--the international standard for extreme poverty--has dropped from 1.25 billion in 1990 to 986 million in 2004 (the latest year for which data were available at the time of publication).

This represents significant progress, given the population growth that occurred during this period.

In 1990, 29 percent of the global population lived below the $1 per day level; in 2004, that figure had dropped to 18 percent; nonetheless, some 2.6 billion people still struggle to make do at this marginal income level.

A Continuum of Adaptation Activities: From Development to Climate Change

On the left-hand side of the continuum, the most vulnerability-oriented adaptation efforts overlap almost completely with traditional development practice, where activities take little or no account of specific impacts associated with climate change, and have many benefits in the absence of climate change.

Integrating Adaptation into Development

When adaptation is incorporated into development, rural communities and poor households have a better opportunity not only to survive a climate shock (coping), recover to where they once were (resilience), or endure the shock as if it were within their usual range of climate variation (adaptation). They also have an opportunity to improve their standards of living even as the climate changes (development).

Percentage of Population Living on Under $2 a day in 2004

The prognosis is mixed for meeting the Millennium Development Goal of halving the incidence of extreme poverty from 1990 levels by 2015. At the global level, this goal is still within reach: extreme poverty is expected to continue declining to around 12 percent of the global population in 2015. But many countries will not come close to meeting the MDG goal, particularly in Africa.

Distribution of Adaptation Cases by Sector

Drawing on a set of case studies presented in WRI's report "Weathering the Storm," this figure indicates relatively little work is taking place on adaptation in the human health and energy sectors. These findings may indicate areas where additional work is needed.

Characterization of Cases by Adaptation Type

Placing individual instances of adaptation along this spectrum is at best an inexact science. However, as this figure illustrates, the authors find the bulk of the experience to date focuses on the “messy middle” of building capacity and managing climate risk, where adaptation is neither wholly focused on climate change impacts nor completely oriented toward the underlying drivers of vulnerability. This figure draws on a set of case studies published in the WRI report Weathering the Storm.